As this post drops with PE teachers, the date will be 14th December. Even though 2023 remains a few weeks away, I want to take the opportunity to make projections for classroom-based PE teaching in 2023. Some of these predictions are speculative and others are really quite likely, mainly because they are in my own personal control.So here you have them: my ten predictions for classroom-based PE teaching in 2023.
Prediction 1: A review of GCSE and A-level PE will be announced
In 2023, news will emerge that GCSEs and A-levels are to be reviewed. This will mean that GCSE and A-level PE courses, along with other subjects, will be announced as changing from September 2024. Whilst this prediction is not too contentious in general as GCSE and A-level review is inevitable, the timing of the review is harder to project. This is even more the case since COVID has had its impact between 2020 and 2021, delaying a probable review to the qualifications which were last reviewed in 2015 and replaced in 2016.
Prior to 2016, GCSE and A-level PE were far more popular than they are currently and a review of these qualifications is an opportunity to redress that balance.
During 2023, the PE sector will be invited to contribute opinions and feedback regarding the subject review and these ideas will be driven by social media interactions with teachers building momentum in the areas that they care about most.
I encourage colleagues to involve themselves in these reviews but also to begin to reflect on what changes they would like to see within the study of GCSE and A-level PE.
Prediction 2: Edexcel PE and sport courses will continue to decline
Sadly, Edexcel PE and sport courses have been declining for some time and this decline will continue during 2023 and beyond. Edexcel GCSE PE has been suffering for some years now and numbers have plummeted from more than 60,000 students per year prior to 2016 to now hovering in the region of 20,000. Teachers and students have reported several issues with the current Edexcel GCSE PE course and these tend to revolve around the written coursework aspect of the course known as the PEP but also the quality of exam papers and, specifically, mark schemes.
Of particular concern has been the Edexcel GCSE PE 9-mark questions, two of which have appeared on each of paper 1 and paper 2 between 2018 and 2022. These 9-mark questions have seen a history of dramatic underperformance by students since their inception in 2016 with both teachers and students arguing that the mark schemes for these questions being restrictive. See below:
To make things starker, BTEC Sport First Award no longer qualifies for school performance tables and, despite its continuation as an available qualification, will haemorrhage students in 2023. It is true that Edexcel has offered a new BTEC Tech award as an alternative but we are projecting BTEC Level 2 course numbers will see a decline of 15,000 students in 2023.
Finally, with Edexcel A-level PE course numbers being dramatically lower than OCR or AQA, Edexcel PE and sport courses overall are slumping in popularity.
It is not my role to make judgments about what is occurring at Edexcel. However, I hope that the members of the PE and Sport team may take the opportunity to consult with thought leaders in the sector during 2023 and, perhaps, go some way to arresting the disappointing trends that exist. The PE and sport sector requires a strong offer from Edexcel and all of us should be incentivised to support them achieving this going forward.
Prediction 3: OCR Nationals will show a dramatic increase in numbers
As you will have read already, BTEC Sport numbers have significantly declined in the last 12 months. The main beneficiary of this decline is the growth in OCR Nationals in Sport Science and Sport Studies.
I have written about these courses repeatedly in recent months (see here for other blogs) and I am projecting that OCR Nationals will at least double in cohort size in 2023. This means that, in total, in the region of 25,000 students per year group will be sitting OCR National exams and coursework units, a 150% increase since 2019.
Prediction 4: Grade boundaries on examined PE units will be narrower than ever
Sadly, raw-mark grade boundaries on PE theory exams have always been relatively narrow but in 2023 we will see them at their narrowest ever. The reasons for this are as follows:
These factors combined will cause a greater clustering of raw mark averages. Like an archer with poor accuracy but high degrees of consistency, we will see the national averages fall with regard to the percentage of all raw marks achieved by students in all PE exams and this will cause a narrow set of raw-mark grade boundaries.
Now, this is not all bad news. Centres who really nail the 2023 exams will see significant growth in their centre’s performance exactly because the national picture is as I have described it above. Also, small factors can make a big difference in this scenario. For example, if teachers manage to really hone their students’ writing skills and the differences between ‘describe’ responses and ‘explain’ responses, say, they will see performance dramatically increase.
Prediction 5: National Mock Exams in PE courses will be normalised
Firstly, I am incredibly proud to be writing this prediction. As teachers go through their final days before the Christmas break, my team and I are putting the finishing touches to 13 mock exam papers that will be published to everyone in January 2023.
Our mock exams:
＊Level descriptors are only relevant on some exams. For example, CIE IGCSE PE exams do not include any questions that require level descriptors.
Furthermore, centres wishing to use the papers as assessments may enter their students' marks into the national database and then receive a national diagnostic report about their centre’s and students’ performances.
Finally, we will be publishing the model answers in advance of our revision offer, meaning that students will have had access to a full-scale mock/practice exam in 2022, the mark scheme that goes with it, model answers for all questions and revision sessions to help them build for their exams. All of this will be completely free to everyone. Writing this makes me proud.
Prediction 6: Conversations will begin on the sector’s preferred qualification structure in physical literacy
This is, perhaps, the most controversial prediction in this list, as I am referring to something brand-new. My position is that GCSE, A-level PE and BTEC sport courses should remain exclusive and, where relevant, provide an opportunity for students to gain credit for sports performance. This is not wrong! Students who have learned to swim with great prowess since the age of three should be enabled within our qualification structures to be credited for this learning. We need to preserve this.
However, I do believe that a further qualification structure is required in the field of movement and I currently refer to this as being a qualification in physical literacy. I have my own ideas about what this would look like but I hope that other teachers might be interested in engaging with me in discussions about what we might like to offer and how a new model could be ratified in the years to come.
Prediction 7: The first-ever book written specifically about the discipline of classroom-based PE teaching will be published
Currently, there is no author who has ventured into the field of classroom-based PE teaching. In 2023, this will change when I publish my first book-length offering on exactly this topic. I have been writing “book 1” for about a month now and I feel it is progressing well. I am close to contacting publishers with my book proposal and, at that point, I will be able to share more information about my writing.
My aim is detailed here in my “About this book” section:
Now then, “Book 1” is not the only piece of writing I have been working on. I have also begun to map out and write a story that I am currently calling “Murder in the Changing Rooms”. It is whodunit fiction based in a school and I am really, really enjoying writing it. I am unsure if I will publish the story but I hope that I might be able to share it via the blog in the months to come. Despite the slightly menacing working title, the story is meant to be light-hearted and mysterious. It does involve the murder of Mr. Celyn, the PE teacher, however. Eek!
Prediction 8: PE students will sit full-scale exams for the first time since 2019
Well, there is no surprise here. It is a fact that PE students in 2023 will be the first to sit full-scale non-AEI-based exams since 2019. I am confident that every reader of this article is already aware of this but I simply want to remind colleagues of the challenge.
I will be supporting this challenge by providing my infographics and revision services completely freely to everyone, including the national mock exams detailed above.
Prediction 9: Over 75% of all PE students sitting PE exams in 2023 will revise with me
In 2022, up to 80% of students completed my free revision in the weeks and days leading to their exams. This year, I anticipate that over 75% of students across all GCSE and A-level PE courses will revise with me.
The revision I am providing (all of which is free) includes the following:
(Register here for 2023 revision updates)
All of the items above are optional and students and teachers may dip in and out as much as they wish. The provision is 100% and utterly free to all. The only aspect that would require a subscription to TheEverLearner.com is the national diagnostic report and schools who are not subscribers to the website will have access to TheEverLearner.com for free during this period of time.
Prediction 10: Self-paced access to ExamSimulator will be made available to students
For my final prediction, I want to announce that self-paced exams will become available to students via ExamSimulator. This means that rather than students needing their teachers to set exams for them, students will be able to opt to practise exam questions and can also self-mark their work.
We envisage that this will increase the range of exam practice that students do very significantly, as well as further educate students about the structure of mark schemes and the requirements of assessment objectives.
Students’ self-paced writing will not feature in the dashboard but teachers will be able to measure the time students spend doing exam questions.